Russian Military Intervention - Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other US competitor since the end of the Cold War. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia intervenes militarily, examining 25 of Russia's interventions since 1991, including the specific cases of the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and Moscow's involvement in the ongoing civil war in Syria. the war
Moscow's use of its armed forces abroad in recent years has fundamentally changed the perception of Russia as an international actor. With its annexation of Crimea in 2014, its invasion of eastern Ukraine and suppression of an insurgency there, and (especially) its intervention in Syria in 2015, Russia has repeatedly surprised US lawmakers with its willingness and ability to use its military. foreign policy objectives. .
Russian Military Intervention
The authors suggest that Russia is more likely to intervene to prevent the erosion of its influence in its neighborhood, especially after a shock that predicts that erosion to occur rapidly. Should regime change occur in a key regional ally of Russia, such as Belarus or Armenia, bringing to power a government opposed to Moscow's interests, military intervention is possible (if not).
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The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Chief Adjutant General G-3/5/7 of the United States Army and was conducted as part of the Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program.
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Charap, Samuel, Edward Geist, Bryan Frederick, John J. Drennan, Nathan Chandler, and Jennifer Kavanagh, Russian Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signals. Santa Monica, CA: Corporation, 2021. https:///pubs/research_reports/RRA444-3.html. Also available in print.LATAKIA PROVINCE, SYRIA JULY 22, 2020: A Russian military policeman with a Russian national flag is seen on patrol with Turkish troops on the M4 highway in the Idlib de-escalation zone, northeast of Syria. For the first time, Russia and Turkey jointly patrolled the entire M4 highway to provide a safe link between Aleppo and Latakia. In March 2020, the presidents of Russia and Turkey met for talks in Moscow and reached an agreement on a ceasefire and joint patrols to ease the situation in northeastern Syria. Andrei Gryaznov/TASS (Photo by Andrei GryaznovTASS via Getty Images)
Russia cannot compete militarily with other global powers, but it can serve as a chronic disruptor to their interests. Moscow's strategy is not to dominate its adversaries, especially the United States, but to maintain balance through diplomatic, economic, military and political pressure.
Beginning in the late 1990s and accelerating dramatically after 2014, Russia has gradually expanded its extraterritorial deployment of military forces. Russia currently has some sort of permanent or recurring military presence in Syria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Ukraine, Venezuela, the Central African Republic, Libya, Egypt, and Sudan.
Despite this expansion, Russia is nowhere near being able to compete with China, the United States or France in terms of military operations abroad. This is not to say that Russia's military deployments abroad are paper tigers or strategic overreach; rather, they are another example of Russia playing its weak hand brilliantly, using limited resources to secure its own strategic interest while acting as a disincentive to US interests.
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Russia's strategy is not to subdue its adversaries, especially the US, but to keep them permanently in balance by exerting diplomatic, economic, military and political pressure. If the US and its allies allow Russia to pursue this strategy unimpeded, they will find themselves inserting Russia into some very volatile conflict zones, expanding its interests to the detriment of US objectives. Russia has already used its strategy to check NATO expansion. The Caucasus and the wider former Soviet Union support hostile regimes in Syria and Venezuela and increasingly support US-skeptic governments in Africa.
Russia has also sought Washington's own sanctions laws as a means of putting pressure on current or potential US allies, actively pushing for sales of weapons systems to force the US into an awkward position of punishing allies or refusing to budge. Russia's goal is to provide an active obstacle to US policy and further strain already stressed alliances.
In 2014, then-President Barack Obama described Russia as "a regional power whose actions in Ukraine are a sign of weakness rather than strength." This characterization, as with so much related to Russia, is both true and false. Although Russia's economic and military capabilities have greatly diminished since the days of the USSR, it is by no means weak, and President Vladimir Putin has shown an extraordinary ability to use the resources at his disposal. By inserting itself into various conflicts, the Kremlin takes an interest in them and forces the US and other nations to deal with Russia equally, preventing Russia from being isolated as the US would like.
This assessment will focus on Russia's scalable approach to military deployments abroad as part of its broader strategy. This is a critical issue now that the Trump administration and domestic political problems in the US have left the US greatly diminished internationally, leaving precisely the opportunity Russia wants to exploit. The US must improve its understanding of Russia's strategy and act against it or else it will lose even more and allow Russia to consolidate its current advantage.
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The Russian military is much smaller and less capable than the US. Despite having 900,000 men and women under arms in all branches, Russia's military has undergone several major reforms since the 2008 war with Georgia, aimed at downsizing and modernizing it. military from a massive conscript force to a manageable force of long-serving professional soldiers. Despite the expanding arms industry, Russia still suffers from shortages of critical systems such as heavy aircraft and the development and deployment of new weapons systems.
Although the military industrial base has been a top priority for the Putin government, results have lagged significantly due to a lack of investment and the emptying of the industrial base following the collapse of the USSR. An example of this has been Russia's need to build new dry docks for its largest warships since the USSR's main naval shipyards were located in Ukraine. Production of other systems, such as the new T-14 Armata tank and the T-15 IFV, has been slowed by insufficient industrial capacity and a lack of funding and organizational capacity to integrate them into the military.
Despite its shortcomings, the Russian military has demonstrated its ability to conduct effective combined arms combat operations, especially on its outskirts. It is also ready to reform and reconfigure its command and operating systems for the 21st century. to face the challenges of the 21st century war. The brief 2008 war with Georgia clearly illustrated the shortcomings of the Russian military: a lack of actionable intelligence, a high-level command structure, and serious gaps in command and control. The reforms initiated after the conflict sought to correct these problems. Drawing on US templates, Russia has sought to make its military more nimble and capable, capable of a wide range of operations, from low-intensity conflicts to full-scale conventional warfare.
However, despite these reforms, Russia's reach remains limited. As a recent RAND report noted: "In Russia's re-emerging status as a global military power, its ability to deploy ground forces is only strong near its western border and in the area of its air defenses. Although a credible threat to Eastern Europe, ground combat "-the ability of units to deploy is dramatically reduced as geographic distance increases. Limited forces and transportation, lack of international support, forward operating bases, and insufficient sustainment capabilities of deployed forces also prevent Russia from regaining its Soviet-era deployment capability."
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Given these limitations, Russia has had to adopt a more creative approach to assert its influence and achieve its secondary and tertiary goals far beyond its borders. It has been able to deploy and maintain a combined arms force in Syria roughly the size of a brigade. However, Russian operations elsewhere, such as in Africa,
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